Derby starters I like/dislike in Preakness - 05/16/13
Derby starters running back for the Preakness
We are a little behind this week with our Preakness coverage, that's the bad news. The good news is that it is already Thursday, just two days away from the second leg of horse racing's Triple Crown. Orb is the pick without a doubt. He ran a very impressive Kentucky Derby and he should get a decent trip in the Preakness. You do not even need to look at the past performances to know that the Preakness pace will be a lot softer than the Derby. So who will it benefit? The answer, in my opinion, is everyone.
Given the probable pace scenario Goldencents will most likely be the front-runner. Titletown Five is another colt that likes to run out front, but trainer D. Wayne Lukas has given jockey Julien Leparoux strict orders not to be on the lead. Goldencents was the victim of a hot Derby pace, couple that with the off-track and we can toss out his effort in my opinion. He should run better in here.
A few other Derby starters running back in the Preakness that I am not that high on are Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday. Others might be, but I am not. Here is why Oxbow needs an ideal trip to be successful. He is a good horse so do not get me wrong, but Oxbow might be suited for the shorter distances. He has lost ground down the stretch in many of his route starts and looks to be a level below the others here. As for Itsmyluckday, his Brisnet speed numbers have been dropping significantly since the beginning of the year. His form just is not where it needs to be in this field.
Some Derby starters that I do think have a shot in here are Mylute and Will Take Charge. Mylute ran a very good fifth in the Derby, gaining ground down the stretch. That came after a really nice run in the Louisiana Derby where he came up a neck short. This colt is improving and certainly has to be a threat in the Preakness. Will Take Charge had an awful trip in Kentucky. He made a very sharp move around the far turn only to run up on the heels of Verrazano, essentially ruining any chance he might have had. The Preakness will be his second start after the layoff and I am always a big supporter of that. I wrote before the Derby that he could be a longshot threat and I think that will be the case Saturday as well, though he certainly will not be the 36-1 bomb he was two weeks ago.
The so-called 'new shooters', horses who skipped the Derby to run in the Preakness, do not have great statistical appeal. There is some intrigue though. Check back tomorrow for an overview of those horses.