Meteorologist Steve LaPointe
Update Time: 5:35 PM 3/30/2017
NEW WEATHER PHONE NUMBER: 518-381-4944 – CALL FOR AN AUDIO FORECAST
MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING – VARIABLE PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM HEAVY SNOW TO SLEET TO HEAVY RAIN – DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY AT VARIOUS TIMES
A large low pressure system tracking through the Midwest will move into western New York Friday afternoon and weaken. A new storm will develop along the New Jersey coast Friday afternoon, intensify, and then track south of New England Saturday. The combination of the two systems, but especially the new coastal storm, will produce anywhere from 1.75” to 2.50” of liquid equivalent precipitation across the region, some of which will fall as sleet and heavy snow. The greatest area of uncertainty right now remains the temperature profiles in the atmosphere through the duration of the storm. Right now we’re right on the line between a very heavy snow storm and more of a snow, sleet, and rain storm with heavier snow likely in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Vermont, and the northern Berkshires. It’s as fine as a degree or two shift colder or warmer, which would mean the difference in the mixed scenario, which means a much lower snow total, or the colder scenario, which would mean a much heavier snow total over a large portion of our region. Right now, I believe the odds favor the ever so slightly warmer solution would limit the heaviest snow accumulations to the Adirondacks, Vermont and the northern Berkshires, where up to 12” is possible, with light to locally moderate accumulations of a very heavy, wet, and dense snow for much of the remainder of the region which will most likely range from 3"-5", spread out over a 36 hour period with melting between periods of snow. Somewhat higher amounts of 4"-7" will be possible in the Mohawk valley to Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls where the air could stay a little colder for a little longer. There is, however, considerable uncertainty in the ultimate amount of snow that will fall at any one location due to the changeable nature of the precipitation through the duration of the storm.
CLICK HERE FOR THE CBS6 SNOWFALL FORECAST
CLICK HERE FOR THE NWS WINTER STORM ADVISORY COUNTY OUTLINE MAP
THROUGH 10AM FRIDAY
The first arm of precipitation will come in as early as 10-11pm tonight, especially in areas west of the Hudson valley, and likely as a light mix of rain and snow. A fairly quick transition to all snow should occur through daybreak as this initial installment of moisture swings through. Right now it appears that a general 1”-3” snow accumulation will be likely in most areas by 9-10am with slow and slick travel conditions likely on many areas roads through the Friday morning commute.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A transition from snow to a mixture of snow, sleet, and a cold rain will take place in the Catskills, Mohawk valley, Saratoga - Capital Region, mid Hudson valley and into the lower elevations in the Berkshires and southern Vermont. However, there will likely be quite a bit of back and forth with the precipitation types between heavy wet snow and sleet and rain as times of heavier precipitation will favor more of a snow scenario with lighter precipitation favoring more of a rain scenario. With the precipitation falling through the daylight hours, there will be the benefit of the sun’s energy which will likely mean largely wet roads with considerable melting during the day. Although, snow covered roads should be expected in the Adirondacks, and in the mountains in Vermont and the Berkshires and could briefly develop anywhere in heavier snow bursts.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING
The coastal storm will undergo intensification through this period with a subsequent ramping up of the precipitation rates and a slight drop in temperature which will mean mixed precipitation will tend to switch back over to snow in all areas. Slow and slick travel conditions will likely expand from the higher elevations into the valleys as snow should accumulate on all surfaces through the overnight and into Saturday morning. Then as the storm pulls away Saturday afternoon everything should come to an end, possibly as a mix again of snow and rain, through the late morning and the early afternoon.
WIND: NNE 10 mph
TEMPS: Near 40 by 8pm
A light mix of rain and snow developing in areas west of the Hudson valley by 10-11pm
The mix spreading east across the remainder of the region through the night with a switch over to all snow
1”-3” of snow accumulation by 9-10am in most areas
WIND: NNE 5-10 mph
A mixture of snow, sleet, and rain – precipitation heavy at times and mostly snow in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Vermont, and the northern Berkshires through the day
WIND: ENE 5-15 mph
TEMPS: Mid 30s
A mixture of snow, sleet, and rain
The mixture changing to all snow through the night
WIND: NNE 10-15 mph
Snow during the morning mixing with rain again in the valleys before ending from west to east during the late morning and early afternoon
Drying out through the mid to late afternoon
WIND: NNW 10-20 mph
A mixture of clouds and sunshine
Today's Record Temperatures